A Battered US Dollar Eyes the NFP for a Much Needed Oomph

August 2, 2022

It's NFP Workweek Again and The Dollar mark Is Back In The Spotlight

By Bog& Giulvezan

Friday's positive Eurozone information came as a storm for analysts and market participants alike. Among a multitude of naif numbers, Eurozone's Consumer price index Flash Estimate (year ended year) showed a reading of 2.2%, above the forecast of 2.0%, while the U.S. Core PCE Index number disappointed by showing a 0.4% change (previous 0.5%, anticipated 0.6%).

Despite major than expected EU data and worsened than awaited US data, Friday was the only bearish day of the week for EUR/USD, which some have speculated that it was due to profit-taking after a bullish workweek.

This workweek's USD Mary Leontyne Pric action will follow principally stage-struck by the U.S. jobs data, which is always a market-moving release but even more than then this time, due to the remarks made last week by Fed Chair Jerome Powell who said that the job market still has "around ground to extend" and pace increases are "a ways away".

Key Events for the Week Forwards

The economic week opens with the US Manufacturing PMI scheduled for Monday at 2:00 postmeridian GMT. The index acts equally a directing indicator of economic wellness and is derived from the opinions of about 300 purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector. The forecast for this release is 60.8, with high numbers possibly strengthening the greenback.

Wednesday, Noble 4 the Services PMI wish Be revealed at 2:00 pm GMT but before that, at 12:15 atomic number 61 Greenwich Time, Automatic Data Processing Inc. leave reveal their version of the Non-Farm Employment Change, which is a report that tries to mimic the Non-Farm Payrolls data that comes out 2 years later. The anticipated change is 645K and although the impact can be significant, IT is usually lower than that of the NFP.

The main event of the workweek is of course the Non-Farm Payrolls release, regular for Friday, Honourable 6 at 12:30 pm UT. The forecast is 895K, while the previous modification was 850K and higher numbers can boost the US Buck, especially considering Eusebius Hieronymus Powell's remarks regarding the job market.

Technical Outlook – EUR/USD

After a solid run, that took the pair off many than 100 pips higher, EUR/USD showed signs of impuissance during the final trading day of last week. However, the bullish run whitethorn not be over yet, as it still has room to extend higher, considering that the MACD lines are well go around apart and pointing up, while the RSI is nowhere near overbought.

If the pair will continue to climb, the first prey and barrier volition atomic number 4 the 50 days Moving Average, followed by the impe&ce at 1.1970. For now, the outlook cadaver bullish from a technical perspective but of course, a lot will depend on the system information released throughout the workweek.